Ukrainian Famine of 1932-33 Numbers. Still another attempt at counting the victims.

holodomor Volodymyr Serhijchuk is a professor of history at the Kyiv State University and one of the more eminent researchers in Soviet archives. In terms of publishing his findings, he is perhaps the most prolific of the researchers.

One of the topics of his expertise is the Ukrainian famine of 1932-33. For a long time he simply accepted the number of victims estimated by historians in the West. When the 7 million number was challenged in recent publications both in Ukraine and the West, Prof. Serhijchuk decided to conduct his own research to establish as well as reasonably possible, given the Soviet’s propensity for distortion,  the number of Ukrainian Famine victims. In the course of his research of archives and familiarizing himself with the research and findings of others, he has determined that there are serious flaws in some of the recent conclusions, particularly those diminishing the number of victims.

The city of Kharkiv was the initial capital of the Ukrainian SSR. It was the capital during the famine years of1932-33.  While historians and demographers have generally referred to the three censuses of 1926,1937 and 1939 in attempting to establish the number of victims, none to my knowledge have come upon or used the documents from 1932 which Mr. Serhijchuk recently discovered.  These additional documents shed much light on the extent of the casualties.

Specifically there are documents from January and October1932 which perhaps best illustrate the population of the Ukrainian SSR at its height since the famine essentially began in the Spring of 1932 and its short term effect. It is important also to consider a breakdown between the rural and urban populations since it was the peasantry that was most affected.

It is also significant that the 1926 census included questions on migration while both the 1937and1939 censuses did not. Finally it is important to recognize that since the decree of January 22,1932 forbade people from leaving the territory of the Ukrainian SSR the total population of the Ukrainian SSR could not have been much affected by outside migration.

Mr. Serhijchuk was able to locate Soviet documents indicating that in January 1932 there were 25,553,000 rural dwellers in the Ukrainian SSR. This was an increase over the census 1926 number due to a normal growth rate of births exceeding deaths.  By 1937 that number had dropped precipitously to 18,825,842. Some may suggest that the glaring decline in rural dwellers was not only due to mortality but aggravated due to migration of people to the cities in search of bread. Interestingly enough the censuses could not be used to support any definite answer. However, there is evidence of a significant number of Russians relocating into Ukrainian cities in the period of 1926 to 1937.

Published in Kharkiv the capital of the Ukrainian SSR “Information about the territory and population as of January 1, 1932 in accordance with the findings of the Central Administrative Territorial Commission of the All Ukrainian Central Executive Committee” shows that the total population of the Ukrainian SSR on January 1, 1932 was 32,680,700 with 7,127,700 urban and 25,553,000 rural. Furthermore as of October 1, 1932 according to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine there were 31,909,000 total with 7,235,000 urban and 24,674,000 rural. This second set of numbers is important to show the serious decline in the rural population from January to October 1932 and the moderate increase of the urban population. The decline is not compensated by the urban rise.

Including these numbers in what has been know to date, the following tables represent the statistics found by Prof. Serhijchuk:

Total population of the Ukrainian SSR

1926 census       January 1932              October 1932          1937 census

28,925,900         32,680,700                 31,909,000            28,213,800

Total population difference between January 1932 and 1937 is 4,466,900. If we include the rate of growth between 1926 and January1932 at the rate of 2.1% annually (this may include non-Ukrainians as well) and apply it to 1934-1936, when the famine was not in effect, the growth should have been 1,828,254, thus a total population decline in the Ukrainian SSR from January 1932 when the famine was beginning to take effect to January 1937 prior to Stalin’s and Yezhov’s purges of 6,295,154. It is important to bear in mind that significant numbers of Russians came into Ukraine’s cities in the late 1920’s for such projects as Dniprobud beginning in 1927, etc.

Rural population of the Ukrainian SSR

1926 census        January 1932             October 1932           1937 census

23,663,113          25,553,000                24,674,000              18,825,842

Total rural population difference between January 1932 and1937 is 6,727,158. If we include the annual rate of growth between 1926 and January 1932 of the rural population at 1.33% and apply it to 1934-1936 when the famine was no longer in effect, applying this rate to the lowest available number of the 1937 census,  the growth should have been 753,034, thus a total rural population decline in the Ukrainian SSR from January 1932 when the famine was beginning to take effect to January 1937 prior to the purges of 7,480,192.

Serhijchuk also stresses that the victims of famine should refer not only to those whose names were recorded in the documents of death, but also those nameless hungry individuals who could not travel to Russia for bread and were buried near the railway stations in large graves which even today no one has investigated. Similar graves exist near large factories and mines, whose directors did not hire local farmers exhausted by hunger and instead recruited labor outside the Ukrainian SSR, for example, in Zaporozhye near the Dnieper area. Victims were those also who were executed or died in prison convicted of the crime of hoarding  “five ears of grain”, whose bodies were not given to relatives for burial in his/her native village. Then there were many anonymous bread seekers who were victims of cannibals or wild animals. No statistics were kept of those who died from bullets of Soviet border guards when they tried to cross the border to Poland or Romania.

Only after careful and complete consideration of all the circumstances, can one determine the final losses of the Ukrainian peasants during the famine of 1932 1933. Unfortunately, to date no researchers have completed this work.

These numbers are applicable to the Ukrainian SSR only. Additional Ukrainian victims should be considered from regions of the Russian SSR, specifically, the Kuban region, which was heavily populated by Ukrainians and from which migration was barred by the January 22, 1933 decree as well. Also there were Ukrainian prisoners in the “five ears of grain” category who died in transit or in concentration camps on the territory of Russia. The noted historian Robert Conquest without the benefit of Soviet archives had estimated in the 1980’s that some one million Ukrainians died as a result of the 1932-33 famine outside the Ukrainian SSR. No serious historian or demographer has addressed or controverted that number.

Simply put in conclusion, the number of Ukrainian victims of the famine of 1932-33, the generally accepted 7 million total is clearly and convincingly supported by the accumulated evidence. As to the issue of whether it was a genocide of the Ukrainian peasantry, there is no issue.  The Ukrainian peasant was suppose to die.

August 7, 2016                                                Askold S. Lozynskyj